Weekly Petrol Prices Report - Australia
5
AVERAGE TERMINAL GATE PRICES (TGPs) ACROSS
AUSTRALIAN STATES/TERRITORIES
Week ended 24 October 2014
UNLEADED PETROL (cents per litre $ A)
Monday Tuesday W ednesday Thursday Friday
20 Octo ber 2014 21 Octo ber 2014 22 Octo ber 2014 23 Octo ber 2014 24 Octo ber 2014
Sydney
133.1 132.5 131.8 131.5 131.3
Melbourne
132.6 131.9 131.2 131.0 130.8
Brisbane
132.7 132.0 131.3 131.1 130.8
Ad elaide
132.5 131.8 131.1 130.9 130.6
Perth
132.7 132.2 131.5 131.3 131.1
Darw in
136.4 135.8 135.1 134.8 134.6
Hobart
137.0 136.5 135.9 135.7 135.6
NOTES: Daily TGP data are published by all wholesale fuel suppliers. AIP’s website presents average TGP data for each weekday –
see www.aip.com.au/pricing/tgp.htm. This data has been prepared by ORIMA Research Pty Ltd on behalf of AIP, using information from BP
Australia, Caltex, Shell Australia, and ExxonMobil Australia. Prices shown are the average TGP for unleaded petrol across each of these
companies for the day.
EXPLAINING THE TIME LAG BETWEEN CHANGES IN SINGAPORE PRICES
AND CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN WHOLESALE PETROL PRICES
Generally, there is a sh o rt time lag of 1-2 weeks between
changes in Singapore p rices an d changes in Australian prices.
The lag can be seen in FIGURE 3 on the previous page. That is,
see the slight delay in the peaks and troughs in the pink line
(National Average TGP) compared to the purple line (MOPS95
Petrol plus Shipping & Taxes).
Importantly, this time lag occurs whether:
prices are going up (when the la g s lo ws price rises to c onsumers )
or prices are g oing down (when the lag delays price falls).
The lag is a result of using a rolling average of Singapore prices
as part of the wholesale pricing methodology (very similar to that
used by the ACCC when wholesale prices were regulated by
government). The pricing methodology is called import parity
pricing (IPP).
The use of rolling averag es smooths day-to-da y pric e volatilit y.
Not accounting for this lag, introduced by the rolling average,
leads to incorrect conclusions about how Singapore prices flow
through to prices in Australia.
The very close relationship between changes in MOPS95 Pet rol
and changes in Australian TGPs can be seen by applying a
rolling average to the MOPS95 Petrol data (a 7 day rolling
average is used in the Chart to the right to illustrate this).
98
106
114
122
130
138
146
106
114
122
130
138
146
154
25/10/2013 25/01/2014 25/04/2014 25/07/2014
Australian Average TGP (Lef t H and Sc ale)
MOPS95 Pet rol Plus Shipping & Taxes - 7 Day
R olling Av erage (Right H and Sc ale)
C ent s per lit re ($A) C ent s per lit re ($A)
24/10/2014
Page 5/8
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