Sample Risk Management Plan
Enterprise Project Management Office State of North Dakota
Sample Risk Management Plan
Page 2 of 12
2.2. Probability of Occurrence
The following table defines the probability of occurrence.
Table 1 – Risk Probability of Occurrence
Probability range Natural language expression
Probability
value used for
calculations
Numeric
score
91% through 99% “Very likely” to occur 95% 5
61% through 90% “Probably” will occur 76% 4
41% through 60%
“May occur” about half of the
time
51% 3
11% through 40% “Unlikely” to occur 26% 2
1% through 10% “Very unlikely” to occur 5% 1
2.3. Risk Impact
The following table defines the risk impact categories and terms. For positive
risks, consider the opposite of the impact description. The examples would remain
the same except having a positive impact to the project.
Table 2 – Risk Impact
Impact Description Example *
Natural
language
expression
Impact value
used for
calculations
Numeric
score
An event that, if it
occurred, would cause
project failure (inability to
achieve minimum
acceptable requirements)
schedule
adjustment
>2 mo
cost impact
> 40%
Critical
Cost of
variance
10
An event that, if it
occurred, would cause
major cost/ schedule
increases. Secondary
requirements may not be
achieved.
schedule
adjustment
>1 mo
cost impact
>20%
Serious
Cost of
variance
8
An event that, if it
occurred, would cause
moderate cost/ schedule
increases, but important
requirements would still
be met.
schedule
adjustment
> 2wks
cost impact
> 10%
Moderate
Cost of
variance
5
Page 2/12
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