Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends

energy.gov/sunshot
Reported, Bottom-up, and Analyst-projected
Average U.S. PV System Prices over Time
Note: The reported system price for the residential market is the median price reported for systems less than or equal to 10 kW.
The modeled residential system price represents a ~5 kW system. The reported system price for the commercial market is the
median price reported for commercial systems greater than 100 kW. The modeled commercial system price represents a ~200 kW
rooftop system. The reported system price for the utility-scale market is the capacity-weighted average reported price for ground-
mounted systems greater than or equal to 5 MW in size, with a capacity-weighted average project size of 150 MW in 2013. The
modeled system price of utility-scale systems represents a ~175 MW fixed-tilt ground-mounted system. Modeled system prices for
all sectors are representative of bids issued in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The Global Module Price Index is the
average module selling price for the first buyer (P Mints SPV Market Research).
5
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All methodologies show a downward trend in PV system pricing
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Reported pricing and modeled benchmarks historically had similar results, however have recently
diverged in estimated pricing.
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$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P 2016P
2013$/W
DC
Installation Year
Analyst Expectations, Distributed PV
Analyst Expectations, Utility-Scale
Reported System Price, Residential (Median)
Reported System Price, Commercial (Median)
Reported System Price, Utility (Cap-Wtd. Avg.)
Modeled System Price, Residential
Modeled System Price, Commercial
Modeled System Price, Utility
Analyst Expectations of Module Price
Global Module Price Index
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